Objective To estimate and analyze the disease burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) and explore its possible trend among residents in Xuhui District of Shanghai.
Methods Data obtained from Xuhui District residential death registration system (1999-2011) were employed to select 1 780 residents under 80 years old with DM as primary death cause. The disease burden of DM was estimated by disability adjusted life year (DALY) which included years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD). The time trend of DALYs were predicted by establishing a Grey Dynamic model.
Results The DALYs of DM of Xuhui residents under 80 years of age over the past 13 years were higher than those of emerging market economies and China in 2004. The estimated YLD, accounting for 67.5% of total DALY, was much higher than the YLL no matter what gender was concerned. The DALYs of males showed a time trend tendency (u=2.92, P < 0.01) while no such trend was found in females. The short-term estimated DALYs for residents under the age of 80 years based on Grey Dynamic model were 7.66 and 8.26 per 1 000 people for year 2012 and 2013, respectively.
Conclusion The burden of DM in Xuhui District is heavy and shows a time tendency in men. Disabled burden of DM is higher than death burden.
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