Objective To describe the incidence trends of obesity-associated cancers, and to provide basis for cancercontrol-related policy making and prevention program evaluation in Shanghai.
Methods Incidence rate data from Shanghai cancer registry system were coded by ICD-10 and ICD-O-3 and analyzed. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) based on log linear model was adopted to describe the incidence trend. Population attributable risk percent (PARP) was employed to estimate the obesity-associated incidence cases.
Results Whether over the long-term (1973-2008) or short-term (2002-2008) period, the breast cancer incidence rate of females at age of 50 years old and above was increasing continually and significantly with an AAPC of 2.34% in urban areas during 1973-2008 and an APC of 4.00% in suburb areas during 2002-2008. The incidence rates of endometrial cancer of all females and of the 50 years old and above did not present significant trends of variation. The colorectum cancer presented significant ascending trends, except among the suburb females, for the urban with an AAPC of 2.33% during 1973-2008 and the suburb with an APC of 2.51% during 2002-2008. The kidney cancer showed significant ascending trends for the urban residents with an AAPC of 5.20% during 1973-2008 and the suburb residents with an APC of 7.57% during 2002-2008. During 2002-2008, the esophagus and gastric cardia adenocarcinoma presented significant descending trends, except among the suburb males, for the urban residents with an APC of 10.49% and the suburb residents with an APC of 2.94%. In 2009, the obesity-associated incidence number of the above 5 cancers was 1 431, accounting for 11.37% of the total incidence count of the above 5 cancers. The endometrial cancer had the largest proportion of the obesity-associated cancers and covered 23.41% of its total incidence cases.
Conclusion Multiple strategies including obesity control and screening for high risk populations should be implemented in Shanghai to alter the increasing trends of several obesity-associated cancers.
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