Forecasting of Foodborne Disease Caused by <i>Vibrio parahaemolyticus</i> in Shanghai using Grey Model GM (1, 1)

LU Dong-lei; WU Chun-feng; DUAN Sheng-gang; LUO Bao-zhang; XU Bi-yao; LIU Hong

doi:10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2015.14607

LU Dong-lei , WU Chun-feng , DUAN Sheng-gang , LUO Bao-zhang , XU Bi-yao , LIU Hong . Forecasting of Foodborne Disease Caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai using Grey Model GM (1, 1)[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2015, 32(8): 728-730. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2015.14607

Citation:

Forecasting of Foodborne Disease Caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai using Grey Model GM (1, 1)

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To forecast the incidence of foodborne disease caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus (VP) in Shanghai by establishing grey model GM (1, 1).

Methods The Shanghai foodborne disease surveillance data in 2007-2010 were processed by Excel 2010 and used to build GM (1, 1) model. After tests of accuracy and applicability, the model was used to forecast the incidence rate of VP-related foodborne disease in 2011 and 2012 for verification.

Results The GM (1, 1) prediction model established was X(t+1)=124.32e^0.59t-47.14, r_t (relativity)=0.614, C (posterior error ratio)=0.24, P (small error probability)=1, -α (development coefficient)=0.59. The average relative error of model forecast results versus actual data for 2011 and 2012 was 57.48% and 3.90% respectively.

Conclusion The precision of the GM (1, 1) model warrants application with caution in shorttime (2-3 years) forecast. The predicted incidence rate of foodborne disease caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai is increased according to the established model.

FullText(HTML)

References (0)

Relative Articles

Supplements (0)

Cited By

Forecasting of Foodborne Disease Caused by Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Shanghai using Grey Model GM (1, 1)

Abstract

Catalog

Export File

Citation

Format

Content