Background With the increasing aging population in China, there is a significant shortage of labor force. Delaying retirement age has become a potential method to alleviate this labor shortage.
Objective To estimate the healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) of individuals aged 50 years old in China.
Methods This study was based on data from four waves (2011—2018) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). HWLE was estimated for the overall sample of individuals aged 50 years old and above and stratified by sex, educational attainment, marital status, occupation, Hukou type, and region by using continuous-time multistate modelling.
Results A total of 50991 person-times aged ≥ 50 years and older were included in the study. The average total life expectancy of the Chinese population aged 50 years old was 29.72 years (95%CI: 29.28, 30.12 years), with a HWLE of 14.05 years (95%CI: 13.76, 14.33 years). The remaining years lived in the states of healthy but not working, not healthy but working, and not healthy and not working were 8.82 years (95%CI: 8.53, 9.15 years), 2.54 years (95%CI: 2.41, 2.68 years),and 4.30 years (95%CI: 4.08, 4.54 years), respectively. The HWLE (95%CI) of individuals in the baseline states of healthy and working, healthy but not working, not healthy but working, and not healthy and not working were 14.97 (14.69, 15.23), 10.86 (10.52, 11.22), 11.73 (11.31, 12.09), and 9.51 (9.09, 9.97) years, respectively. Additionally, women had a higher total life expectancy (95%CI) than men 31.84 (31.10, 32.54) years vs 27.98 (27.35, 28.50) years, but a lower HWLE than men 12.47 (12.12, 12.82) years vs 15.62 (15.23, 15.98) years. There was no difference in total life expectancy between rural residents and urban residents 29.43 (28.88, 29.97) years vs 30.31 (29.47, 31.02) years, but rural residents had a higher HWLE than urban residents 15.74 (15.39, 16.10) years vs 11.38 (10.97, 11.73) years. Residents in East China 14.66 (14.22, 15.06) years and Central China 14.15 (13.86, 14.43) years had a higher HWLE than residents in West China 13.61 (13.27, 13.98) years and Northeast China 13.06 (12.51, 13.63) years.
Conclusion The HWLE of Chinese residents supports the policy of raising the retirement age. There are differences in HWLE levels between urban and rural areas, as well as across different regions. Providing more flexible employment opportunities for older adults can help mitigate the labor shortages caused by population aging.
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