王志如, 贾小芳, 刘梦冉, 姜红如, 王惠君, 张兵, 李惟怡, 王志宏. 2018年我国15省45~64岁中年人共病现状及其影响因素——基于关联规则分析[J]. 环境与职业医学. DOI: 10.11836/JEOM24001
引用本文: 王志如, 贾小芳, 刘梦冉, 姜红如, 王惠君, 张兵, 李惟怡, 王志宏. 2018年我国15省45~64岁中年人共病现状及其影响因素——基于关联规则分析[J]. 环境与职业医学. DOI: 10.11836/JEOM24001
WANG Zhiru, JIA Xiaofang, LIU Mengran, JIANG Hongru, WANG Huijun, ZHANG Bing, LI Weiyi, WANG Zhihong. Multimorbidity status and risk factors among adults aged 45-64 years in 15 provinces of China in 2018: Based on association rule analysis[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine. DOI: 10.11836/JEOM24001
Citation: WANG Zhiru, JIA Xiaofang, LIU Mengran, JIANG Hongru, WANG Huijun, ZHANG Bing, LI Weiyi, WANG Zhihong. Multimorbidity status and risk factors among adults aged 45-64 years in 15 provinces of China in 2018: Based on association rule analysis[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine. DOI: 10.11836/JEOM24001

2018年我国15省45~64岁中年人共病现状及其影响因素——基于关联规则分析

Multimorbidity status and risk factors among adults aged 45-64 years in 15 provinces of China in 2018: Based on association rule analysis

  • 摘要: 背景

    共病给个人、家庭和社会带来沉重负担。针对我国中年人的共病模式探索研究较少。

    目的

    探讨我国45~64岁人群共病现状及其影响因素,利用关联规则探索共病模式,为制定我国共病相关预防策略提供科学依据。

    方法

    选取“中国健康与营养调查”2018年5494名45~64岁中年人作为研究对象,其中男性2494名(45.39%)、女性3000名(54.61%)。纳入高血压、糖尿病、血脂异常、肥胖、轻度认知功能障碍(MCI)、心肌梗死、脑卒中、哮喘、肿瘤共九种疾病。各疾病及共病检出率用N(%)表示。不同组间共病检出率的比较采用χ2检验或Cochran-Armitage趋势检验。采用Apriori算法实现的关联规则探索共病模式,参数设置为最低条件支持度3.00%,最小规则置信度50.00%,提升度>1.20。采用多因素logistic回归分析各因素与共病的关联。

    结果

    2018年中国15省中年人群共病检出率为37.44%。各疾病检出率由高到低分别为血脂异常(39.99%)、高血压(39.48%)、肥胖(16.42%)、MCI(14.47%)、糖尿病(14.16%)、肿瘤(1.09%)、脑卒中(1.04%)、心肌梗死(0.71%)、哮喘(0.64%)。在总人群中共挖掘出七种共病模式。肥胖和高血压、糖尿病和血脂异常是总人群和不同年龄组、不同性别人群主要的共病模式。不同人群共病模式均集中于肥胖、高血压、糖尿病、血脂异常四种疾病的组合。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,女性患共病的危险性低于男性(OR=0.85,95%CI: 0.75~0.97);年龄55~64岁组共病风险是45~54岁组的1.56倍(95%CI:1.40~1.75);过去一年饮酒者较过去一年未饮酒者共病风险增加25%(OR=1.25,95%CI:1.08~1.45);以低身体活动水平为参照,身体活动水平中、高者共病风险低(中:OR=0.81,95%CI:0.70~0.93;高:OR=0.74,95%CI:0.65~0.85)。

    结论

    2018年我国中年人共病检出率较高,主要共病模式为肥胖和高血压、糖尿病和血脂异常。应加强对男性、饮酒和身体活动低及主要共病模式人群的监测和干预。

     

    Abstract: Background

    Multimorbidity imposes a heavy burden on individuals, families, and society. There are relatively few studies exploring patterns of multimorbidity among middle-aged adults in China.

    Objective

    To explore the current status of multimorbidity, associated risk factors, and multimorbidity patterns among adults aged 45-64 years in China, so as to provide a scientific basis to prevent and control multimorbidity in China.

    Methods

    A total of 5494 adults aged 45-64 years from the Chinese Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) in 2018 were selected. Of these, 2494 (45.39%) were men and 3000 (54.61%) were women. The nine diseases included were hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, obesity, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), myocardial infarction, stroke, asthma, and tumor. The prevalence of each disease or multimorbidity was expressed as N (%). Comparisons of multimorbidity prevalence between different groups were performed using the χ2 test or Cochran-Armitage trend test. Association rule with the Apriori algorithm was used to explore the pattern of multimorbidity, with parameters set at a minimum conditional support of 3.00%, a minimum rule confidence of 50.00%, and a lift of >1.20. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the associations between selected risk factors and multimorbidity.

    Results

    In 2018, 37.44% of participants reported multimorbidity in 15 provinces of China. The prevalence of diseases in descending order was dyslipidaemia (39.99%), hypertension (39.48%), obesity (16.42%), MCI (14.47%), diabetes (14.16%), tumor (1.09%), stroke (1.04%), myocardial infarction (0.71%), and asthma (0.64%). A total of seven multimorbidity patterns were identified in this group. Obesity paired with hypertension, and diabetes paired with dyslipidemia were the two major patterns of multimorbidity in the general population and age or sex subgroups. The multimorbidity patterns of different populations were concentrated in the combination of obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and dyslipidemia. The risk of multimorbidity was lower in females than in males (OR=0.85, 95%CI: 0.75, 0.97). The multimorbidity risk was 1.56 times higher in the 55-64 years group than in the 45-54 years group (OR=1.56, 95%CI: 1.40, 1.75). Drinking in the past year increased the risk of multimorbidity by 25% (OR=1.25, 95%CI: 1.08, 1.45) compared to no alcohol comsumption in the past year. High and medium levels of physical activity were associated with a decreased OR (high: OR=0.74, 95%CI: 0.65, 0.85; medium: OR=0.81, 95%CI: 0.70, 0.93) with low level of physical activity as reference.

    Conclusion

    In 2018, there was a high prevalence rate of multimorbidity among middle-aged adults in China. The main multimorbidity patterns were obesity-hypertension and diabetes-dyslipidemia. Surveillance and interventions should be strengthened particularly for men, individuals with alcohol consumption or insufficient physical activity, and those with major multimorbidity patterns.

     

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