应用灰色模型和指数平滑法预测上海市肾综合征出血热发病率

朱奕奕; 李燕婷; 王晔; 冯玮; 顾宝柯; 袁政安

应用灰色模型和指数平滑法预测上海市肾综合征出血热发病率

朱奕奕^1,2,
李燕婷¹,
王晔¹,
冯玮¹,
顾宝柯¹,
袁政安^1, ,

1.
上海市疾病预防控制中心, 上海 200336
2. 复旦大学公共卫生学院, 上海 200032

基金项目: 上海市卫生局青年科研基金项目(编号:054Y13)

详细信息

作者简介:
朱奕奕(1976-),女,博士生,主管医师;研究方向:急性传染病预防与控制,E-mail:yyzhu@scdc.sh.cn

通讯作者:
袁政安,Email:zayuan@scdc.sh.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2009-07-24
- 刊出日期: 2017-06-25

Application of Grey Model(1,1) and Exponential Smoothing Method in Forecasting Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Shanghai

ZHU Yi-yi ^1,2,
LI Yan-ting ¹,
WANG Ye ¹,
FENG Wei ¹,
GU Bao-ke ¹,
YUAN Zheng-an ^1, ,

1.
Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China
2. School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China

More Information

Corresponding author:
YUAN Zheng-an ,Email:zayuan@scdc.sh.cn

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摘要

摘要:
[目的] 预测上海市肾综合征出血热的发病趋势。

[方法] 利用上海市肾综合征出血热发病资料,建立灰色模型和指数平滑模型来预测本市未来肾综合征出血热的发病率。

[结果] 上海地区肾综合征出血热发病率(& #215;10^-5)的灰色预测模型为:& #374;=(1.49-2.3669/0.5823) e^-0.5823t+2.3669/0.5823,拟合检验显示本模型精度等级为一级,能够较好地预测上海市肾综合征出血热发病率;Holter-Winters双参数指数平滑法预测的最小误差平方和与均方根误差最小，通过D-W检验,预测效果较好。

[结论] 两种方法均可应用于上海市肾综合征出血热发病率的预测。
- 灰色模型 /
- 指数平滑法 /
- 预测
Abstract:
[Objective] To forecast the trend of incident rate of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome(HFRS)in Shanghai.

[Methods] Grey model (1, 1)and Exponential Smoothing model were applied to forecast incident rate of HFRS in Shanghai.

[Results] Grey model(1, 1)forecast equation was& #374;=(1.49-2.3669/0.5823)e^-0.5823t+2.3669/0.5823 and fitness test analysis showed that Grey model was a good model for incident rate forecasting. By comparing sum of squared residuals and root mean squared error, Holter-Winters Exponential Smoothing forecasting was a best Exponential Smoothing method for HFRS, and D-W test also certificated to it.

[Conclusion] Both Grey model (1, 1)and Holter-Winters Exponential Smoothing method are both suitable for forecasting HFRS incident rate.
- grey model /
- exponential smoothing /
- forecasting