Abstract:
Objective To explore application of generalized additive model in forecasting cases of medical sites in Expo 2010 Shanghai China.
Methods By using a generalized additive model with time series adjustment for weekend, the daily cases of medical sites, the total visitors to the Expo and the meteorological factors from May 1st to Aug 8th were analyzed and the forecast was compared with the actual cases.
Results The number of medical site cases showed a weekend effect. With the total visitors increasing, the number of cases increased first and then decreased. With the daily temperature increased, the number of cases increases. The average relative error of prediction was 10.44%.
Conclusion A generalized additive model fit the number of cases of the Expo medical stations and can be used for similar forecast in mass gathering in the future.
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