Abstract:
Objective To identify public health hazards and related sources in mass gatherings and to select objective indicators for public health risk assessment.
Methods A two-round Delphi consultation was conducted to establish a two-level indicator system.
Results The indicator system for public health risk assessment of mass gatherings was constituted of 4 firstlevel and 17 second-level indicators. The first-level indicators were likelihood of public health incident, impact or result of incident, human vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. Risk was calculated according to the following formula: p(R)= kp(H)& #215;p(V)-AC. After two rounds of consultation, the variation coefficients of necessity of all secondary indicators were less than 0.25; however, the variation coefficients of availability were found more than 0.25 in 9 sceondary indicators.
Conclusion The risk assessment indicator system reduces the subjectivity of individual experts reviewing. The system has the potential to apply in a wider range of mass gatherings. The involvement of capacity to prevent and respond to public health incidents improves scientific assessments and practical actions.
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