Abstract:
[Objective] To establish a meteorological forecast model of infectious diarrhea by analyzing the association of infectious diarrhea incidence with meteorological factors.
[Methods] Based on the daily incidents of infectious diarrhea and weather conditions of Shanghai in 2002-2008, a forecast model was established using a generalized additive model for time series data. Corresponding daily incidents of 2009-2010 were used for verification. Forecast service for infectious diseases were then proposed.
[Results] The agreement of the forecast model fitted to the selected actual incident data was 66.43%. The agreement of the forecast model in epidemic season (from May to October) was 77.23%. Diarrhea index system was recommended for public health service.
[Conclusion] The meteorological forecast model of infectious diarrhea can provide diarrhea prevention service to residents of Shanghai and scientific basis for prevention and control of infectious diseases in related governmental agency.
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