德尔菲法及其在公共卫生领域的应用和展望

Delphi Method in Public Health: A Review of Its Application and Prospect

  • 摘要: 德尔菲法(Delphi method)是一个重复进行的专家咨询过程,以整合一组专家个人意见成群组共识为目的的主观评价和预测的方法。该方法具有重复性、匿名性、可控的信息反馈性和对结果统计分析的四大特点,起初广泛应用于军事、社会和经济等领域,近年来在公共卫生领域的应用也日渐广泛。本文将介绍德尔菲法的概念、过程和特点等基本情况,阐述该方法在公共卫生领域内的应用现状,对该法未来发展作出总结和展望。

     

    Abstract: The Delphi method is a structured communication technique to obtain subjective evaluation and to forecast on a certain issue based on the consensus among a panel of experts through a series of polling rounds using a questionnaire. Repetitive process, anonymity of the participants, controlled feedback and statistical aggregation are four characteristics that contribute to its extensive application in various areas varying from military, social science to economy, and even to public health in recent years. This paper introduced the concept, process, and crucial characteristics of Delphi method, reviewed its current application to public health, and briefly discussed its prospect for development.

     

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