高温热浪与急诊救护车呼叫量的时间序列关联:以山东省德州市为例

Time-series association between heatwaves and emergency ambulance calls in Dezhou City, Shandong Province

  • 摘要:
    背景 全球气候变化背景下,高温热浪对人类健康的威胁日益严峻。急诊救护车呼叫量是衡量高温热浪天气下人群急性健康反应的重要结局指标,但我国相关研究多集中在南方,北方地区关注较少,不利于全面评估极端高温的急性健康风险。
    目的 量化山东省德州市高温热浪与急诊救护车呼叫量间的关联。
    方法 收集山东省德州市2020—2022年5—9月的每日急诊救护车呼叫记录与同期气象、空气污染物数据。高温热浪定义采用多个温度阈值和持续时间组合的方法,其中温度阈值为研究期间全年日平均温度的第90、92.5、95和97.5百分位数(P90P92.5P95P97.5),持续时间为上述温度持续≥2、3或4 d。采用嵌套分布滞后非线性模型的广义加性模型分析高温热浪日相对非热浪日的急诊救护车呼叫风险。
    结果 研究期间共有143393例急诊救护车呼叫纳入分析,其中年龄<65岁者占59.75%,男性占53.38%,呼吸系统病因占44.94%。与非热浪期间相比,12种热浪类型与急诊救护车呼叫风险增加均显著相关。随着温度阈值升高和热浪持续时间的延长,热浪效应逐步增强,累积相对风险从P90_2d类型的1.12(95%CI:1.07~1.17)增加到P97.5_4d类型的1.26(95%CI:1.14~1.40)。高温热浪与急诊救护车呼叫的关联强度不存在明显性别差异。年龄方面,老年人更容易受到影响,与非热浪期间相比,其最严重热浪类型P97.5_4d的相对风险为1.60(95%CI:1.42~1.81)。不同呼叫病因中,呼吸系统疾病与高温热浪的关联最为明显,相对风险从最轻微热浪类型P90_2d的1.22(95%CI:1.15~1.29)升高至最严重热浪类型P97.5_4d的1.72(95%CI:1.54~1.93)。
    结论 山东省德州市高温热浪与急诊救护车呼叫风险的增加显著相关,其中高温热浪与急诊救护车呼叫效应的年龄和病种差异明显,老年人和呼吸系统疾病患者更容易受到高温热浪的影响,应做好防护工作。

     

    Abstract:
    Background In the context of global climate change, heatwaves pose an increasing threat to human health. Emergency ambulance calls are an important outcome indicator of acute health response in populations during heatwave weather. However, studies on the association between emergency ambulance calls and heatwaves in China have primarily focused on the southern regions, and less attention is paid to the northern regions, which hinders a comprehensive assessment of acute health impact posed by extreme heat.
    Objective To quantify the association between heatwaves and emergency ambulance calls in Dezhou City, Shandong Province.
    Methods The data on daily records of emergency ambulance calls, meteorological factors, and air pollution from May to September of 2020 to 2022 in Dezhou City, Shandong Province were collected. Heatwaves were defined by combining thresholds at the 90th, 92.5th, 95th, and 97.5th percentiles (P90, P92.5, P95, and P97.5) of the year-round daily mean temperature and durations of ≥2, 3, or 4 consecutive days, respectively. A generalized additive model with a distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the relative risk of emergency ambulance calls during heatwave days compared with non-heatwave days.
    Results During the study period, a total of 143393 emergency ambulance calls were analyzed, with 59.75% of individuals aged <65 years, 53.38% male, and 44.94% due to respiratory causes. Compared to non-heatwave periods, all 12 types of defined heatwaves were significantly associated with an increased risk of emergency ambulance calls. The heatwave effect intensified progressively with higher temperature thresholds and longer durations. The cumulative relative risk rose from 1.12 (95%CI: 1.07, 1.17) for the P90_2d type to 1.26 (95%CI: 1.14, 1.40) for the P97.5_4d type. No significant gender difference was observed in the association between heatwaves and emergency ambulance calls. Regarding age, older adults were more vulnerable, with a relative risk of 1.60 (95%CI: 1.42, 1.81) for the most severe heatwave type P97.5_4d compared with non-heatwave periods. Among the different causes of calls, the association between respiratory diseases and heatwaves was the most pronounced, with the relative risk increasing from 1.22 (95%CI: 1.15, 1.29) for the mildest heatwave type P90_2d to 1.72 (95%CI: 1.54, 1.93) for the most severe heatwave type P97.5_4d.
    Conclusion In Dezhou City, Shandong Province, heatwaves are significantly associated with an increased risk of emergency ambulance calls. The effects of heatwaves on emergency ambulance calls vary by age and disease type, with the elderly and patients with respiratory diseases being more susceptible. These groups should take protective measures.

     

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