2017—2023年寒潮对湖南省衡阳市居民住院人数影响:不同寒潮定义下的时间序列研究

Impact of cold spells on hospitalizations of residents in Hengyang City from 2017 to 2023: A time series study based on different definitions of cold spells

  • 摘要:
    背景 寒潮对人群健康的影响可分为极端低温的独立主效应和持续低温产生的附加效应。然而,目前关于寒潮对住院人数影响的附加效应研究仍较为匮乏。
    目的 探讨寒潮对湖南省衡阳市居民住院人数影响的附加效应,为寒潮预警系统的建立提供科学依据。
    方法 收集衡阳市4个市区2017—2023年逐日气象、空气污染物数据和6家三级医院住院数据,采用广义线性模型(GLM)结合分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM),在控制气温主效应的基础上,评估寒潮对居民非意外住院人数、循环系统和呼吸系统疾病住院人数的附加效应,并分析寒潮特征(强度、持续时间)及个体特征(性别、年龄)的调节效应。
    结果 与非寒潮期间相比,不同强度及持续时间的寒潮期间,非意外总住院及各病因、性别、年龄组的住院相对风险(RR)均升高,但寒潮总效应与强度间呈现"U"型非线性关系,且随持续时间延长而下降。在高强度的寒潮期间(日平均气温<P5且持续≥2 d),非意外总住院RR(95%CI)为1.71(1.21~2.42),男性和女性住院RR(95%CI)分别为1.99(1.38~2.84)和1.47(1.00~2.16),<65岁和≥65岁人群住院RR(95%CI)分别为1.59(1.12~2.26)和1.93(1.27~2.92),循环系统和呼吸系统疾病住院RR(95%CI)分别为1.84(1.22~2.79)和1.07(0.71~1.60),以上组间差异无统计学意义。寒潮单日滞后效应呈双峰分布,非意外总住院人数的单日滞后RR在寒潮暴露滞后1 d首次达到高峰,随后下降并在滞后5 d后持续上升,于滞后12~13 d再次达到高峰,随后逐渐下降,且在滞后8~18 d期间均具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。不同病因、性别和年龄组的寒潮关联滞后模式与总住院人数基本一致。
    结论 寒潮对衡阳市居民非意外住院人数具有显著影响,且存在明显的滞后效应。研究结果为建立更具针对性的寒潮预警系统提供了理论依据。

     

    Abstract:
    Background The impact of cold spells on population health can be categorized into an independent main effect of extreme low temperatures and an added effect of prolonged low temperatures. However, studies on the added effects of cold spells on hospitalizations remain limited.
    Objective To investigate the added effects of cold spells on hospitalizations of residents in Hengyang City, Hunan Province, and to provide a scientific basis for establishing a cold spell early warning system.
    Methods Daily meteorological data, air pollutant data, and hospitalization data from six tertiary hospitals of four districts in Hengyang City from 2017 to 2023 were collected. A generalized linear model (GLM) combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to assess the added effects of cold spells on non-accidental hospitalizations, as well as hospitalizations for circulatory system diseases and respiratory system diseases, after controlling the main effect of temperature. The modifying effects of cold spell characteristics (intensity and duration) and individual characteristics (gender and age) were also analyzed.
    Results Compared with non-cold spell periods, the relative risks (RRs) of total non-accidental hospitalizations and hospitalizations across disease categories, genders, and age groups were elevated during cold spells of varying intensities and durations. However, the total effects of cold spells exhibited a "U-shape" nonlinear relationship with intensity and decreased with prolonged duration. During high-intensity cold spells (daily average temperature < P5 and lasting ≥ 2 d), the RR (95%CI) for non-accidental hospitalizations was 1.71 (1.21, 2.42); the RRs (95%CIs) for males and females were 1.99 (1.38, 2.84) and 1.47 (1.00, 2.16), respectively; for individuals < 65 years and ≥ 65 years, the RRs (95%CIs) were 1.59 (1.12, 2.26) and 1.93 (1.27, 2.92), respectively; and for circulatory and respiratory system diseases, the RRs (95%CIs) were 1.84 (1.22, 2.79) and 1.07 (0.71, 1.60), respectively. No statistically significant differences were observed between the above subgroups. The single-day lagged effects of cold spells displayed a two-peaked pattern. The single-day lag RR for total non-accidental hospitalizations peaked at lag 1 d after cold spell exposure, declined thereafter, and began to rise again after lag 5 d, reaching a second peak at lag 12–13 d before gradually decreasing. The lagged effects remained statistically significant during lag 8–18 d. The lag patterns of cold spell associations across disease categories, genders, and age groups were largely consistent with those of total hospitalizations.
    Conclusion Cold spells have a significant impact on non-accidental hospitalizations of residents in Hengyang City, with notable lagged effects. The findings provide important theoretical support for establishing a more targeted cold spell early warning system.

     

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