深圳市空气污染物短期暴露与心梗死亡的时间分层病例交叉研究

A time-stratified case-crossover study on association between short-term exposure to air pollutants and myocardial infarction mortality in Shenzhen

  • 摘要:
    背景 空气污染是一个重要的公共卫生问题,空气污染物暴露仍能带来健康危害。目前关于深圳市空气污染物对心梗死亡的研究尚且不足。
    目的 定量评估空气污染物与居民心梗死亡的关联。
    方法 基于深圳市疾病预防控制中心死因监测系统,以2013—2022年深圳市10089名因心梗死亡的常住居民作为研究对象开展时间分层病例交叉研究。根据居住地址信息从中国高分辨率大气污染物数据集和中国气象局陆面数据同化系统中获取空气污染物和气象因素的个体暴露水平。采用时间分层病例交叉的研究设计,建立条件logistic回归模型评估短期暴露于空气污染物与心梗死亡的关联,可视化暴露-反应关系,并进行健康风险评估。
    结果 本研究共纳入深圳市10089名心梗死亡的病例。2013—2022年深圳市细颗粒物(PM2.5)、可吸入颗粒物(PM10)、二氧化硫(SO2)、二氧化氮(NO2)、一氧化碳(CO)、臭氧(O3)浓度的中位数四分位间距(IQR)分别为24.59(20.19)μg·m−3、42.85(28.42)μg·m−3、8.53(3.39)μg·m−3、29.47(13.56)μg·m−3、0.77(0.27)mg·m−3和86.53(51.39)μg·m−3。结果表明,在当日和前2日共3 d的PM2.5和PM10滑动平均浓度(lag02)暴露时对心梗死亡风险最高,比值比(OR)以及95%置信区间(95%CI)分别为1.004(1.001~1.007)和1.004(1.002~1.006)。在lag05时SO2对心梗死亡风险最高,OR(95%CI)为1.042(1.019~1.065)。PM2.5、PM10和SO2与心梗死亡的暴露-反应关系近似线性,而NO2为非线性。在lag05时NO2对心梗死亡风险最高,NO2浓度小于等于21.92 μg·m−3时OR(95%CI)为1.024(1.003~1.046)。健康风险评估显示,以全球空气质量指南的指导值为参考浓度,PM2.5和NO2暴露可分别造成398人和298人的超额死亡。敏感性分析发现,在调整了O3以及将研究年份限制在2013—2019年后,PM2.5、PM10、NO2和SO2与心梗死亡的效应值略有增加。
    结论 短期暴露于空气污染物PM2.5、PM10、NO2和SO2可增加人群心梗死亡的风险,本研究可为深圳市环境健康风险评估以及环境治理提供重要的科学依据。

     

    Abstract:
    Background Air pollution remains a critical public health issue, with persistent exposure to air pollutants continuing to pose significant health risks. Currently, research investigating the association between air pollution and myocardial infarction mortality in Shenzhen remains inadequate.
    Objective To quantitatively assess the association between air pollutants and myocardial infarction mortality in residents.
    Methods Based on the mortality surveillance system of Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, we conducted a time-stratified case-crossover study of 10089 permanent residents who died from myocardial infarction in Shenzhen between 2013 and 2022. Using residential address information, we obtained individual-level exposure data for air pollutants from the China High Air Pollutants dataset and meteorological factors from the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System. A time-stratified case-crossover study design was employed to construct a conditional logistic regression model to assess the association between short-term exposure to air pollutants and myocardial infarction mortality. The exposure-response relationship was visualized, and a comprehensive health risk assessment was performed.
    Results This study included a total of 10 089 cases of myocardial infarction deaths in Shenzhen. The median interquartile range (IQR) concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), inhalable particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3) in Shenzhen from 2013 to 2022 were 24.59 (20.19) μg·m−3, 42.85 (28.42) μg·m−3, 8.53 (3.39) μg·m−3, 29.47 (13.56) μg·m−3, 0.77 (0.27) mg·m−3, and 86.53 (51.39) μg·m−3, respectively. The moving average concentrations of PM2.5 and PM10 over the current day and the previous 2 days (lag02) showed the highest risk of myocardial infarction mortality, with an odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) of 1.004 (1.001, 1.007) and 1.004 (1.002, 1.006), respectively. At lag05, SO2 demonstrated the strongest association with the risk of myocardial infarction mortality, with an OR (95%CI) of 1.042 (1.019, 1.065). The exposure-response relationships of PM2.5, PM10, and SO2 with myocardial infarction mortality were approximately linear, whereas NO2 exhibited a nonlinear relationship. At lag05, the highest risk of myocardial infarction mortality associated with NO2 exposure was observed when the NO2 concentration was ≤21.92 μg·m⁻³, with an OR (95% CI) of 1.024 (1.003, 1.046). The health risk assessment indicated that, using the WHO Air Quality Guidelines as the reference, the local PM2.5 and NO2 exposure led to an excess mortality of 398 and 298 cases, respectively. The sensitivity analysis revealed that after adjusting for O3 and restricting the study period to 2013—2019, the effect estimates for PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and SO2 on myocardial infarction mortality slightly increased.
    Conclusion Short-term exposure to air pollutants, including PM2.5, PM10, NO2, and SO2, could increase the risk of myocardial infarction mortality. This study provides important scientific evidence for environmental health risk assessment and environmental management in Shenzhen.

     

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