基于LASSO回归模型的制造业工人非致命性职业伤害影响因素分析

Impact factor selection for non-fatal occupational injuries among manufacturing workers by LASSO regression

  • 摘要:
    背景 制造业作为我国支柱产业,其非致命性职业伤害发生率较高。该行业中个体、设备、环境及管理等非致命性职业伤害各层面因素众多且关联紧密,使其影响因素分析存在复杂性。
    目的 探讨制造业工人非致命性职业伤害的影响因素,为后续开展针对性干预及监测提供依据。
    方法 选择电缆及船舶制造企业内2243名一线作业工人作为研究对象,调查过去1年内非致命性职业伤害发生率及个体、设备、管理及环境等4个层面的因素情况。利用重抽样进行数据平衡,使用LASSO回归模型分析非致命性职业伤害影响因素,参考各变量系数估计值大小判断变量的影响程度及类型,其中系数估计值>0的变量为危险因素,反之则为保护因素,利用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)检验模型性能,当AUC值>0.7时,说明模型性能良好。
    结果 被调查的2243名制造业一线工人中男性占77.7%(1742/2243),主要年龄范围为40~49岁,占29.5%(661/2243),82.7%的工人(1854/2243)已婚,文化程度为初中学历占55.6%(1248/2243),51.0%(1144/2243)的工人平均月收入情况为5000~6999元。该人群非致命性职业伤害发生率为8.4%(189/2243),共计发现22个因素与非致命性职业伤害的发生有关联性(P<0.05)。分别是个体层面的性别、同事关系、吸烟、饮酒、平均运动时间、职业倦怠情况、工作疲劳感、肌肉骨骼疾患、心血管疾病及神经与感觉器官疾病等10个因素,设备层面的设备操作性、存在危险工件及安全隐患情况等3个因素,环境层面的从事低温作业、从事特种作业、从事噪声作业、作业空间大小、环境脏乱等5个因素,管理层面的每天工作时长、每周工作天数、加班情况及岗前技术培训等4个因素。LASSO回归模型AUC值=0.704,模型共计保留10个变量,其中非致命性职业伤害的危险因素共7个(系数估计值>0),包括存在安全隐患情况、存在肌肉骨骼疾患、存在危险工件、职业倦怠、环境脏乱、吸烟及男性;保护因素为3个(系数估计值<0),包括开展岗前技术培训、同事关系良好及每周工作天数长。
    结论 制造企业需要重点关注非致命性职业伤害的发生率,并通过改善安全隐患情况、开展岗前技术培训、减少危险工件、整改作业环境及合理安排工作时长等手段对非致命性职业伤害进行针对性干预。

     

    Abstract:
    Background As a pillar industry in China, the manufacturing sector has a high incidence of non-fatal occupational injuries. The factors influencing non-fatal occupational injuries in this industry are closely related at various levels, including individual, equipment, environment, and management, making the analysis of these influencing factors complex.
    Objective To identify influencing factors of non-fatal occupational injuries among manufacturing workers, providing a basis for targeted interventions and surveillance.
    Methods A total of 2243 frontline workers from cable and shipbuilding enterprises were selected as study subjects to investigate the incidence of non-fatal occupational injuries and collect information at four levels: individual, equipment, management, and environment in past 12 months. Data balancing was performed using resampling, and LASSO regression was used to select factors of non-fatal occupational injuries. The influence degree and type of variables were judged based on the magnitude of the estimated coefficients of each variable, where variables with estimated coefficients > 0 are risk factors, and those <0 are protective factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC)curve (AUC) was used to test the performance of the model, with an AUC value > 0.7 indicating good model performance.
    Results Among the 2243 frontline workers, males accounted for 77.7% (1742 out of 2243), with the main age range being 40-49 years old, representing 29.5% (661 out of 2243), 82.7% of the workers (1854 out of 2243) were married, and 55.6% (1248 out of 2243) had a junior middle school education level. The average monthly income for 51.0% (1144 out of 2243) of the workers was between 5000 and 6999 Chinese Yuan. The incidence of non-fatal occupational injuries among the manufacturing workers was 8.4% (189/2243) in the past 12 months. Among the 22 factors associated with the occurrence of non-fatal occupational injuries (P<0.05), 10 were individual-level factors, including gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, colleague relationships, average exercise duration, job burnout, work fatigue, musculoskeletal disorders, cardiovascular diseases, and neurological and sensory organ diseases; 3 were equipment-level factors, including equipment operability, hazardous workpieces, and safety hazards; 5 were environmental-level factors, including low temperatures, special operations, noise, workspace size, and dirty and disorderly environment; and 4 were management-level factors, including daily working hours, weekly working days, overtime, and pre-job technical training. The AUC value of the LASSO regression model was 0.704 and the final model retained a total of 10 variables. Among them, there were 7 risk factors for non-fatal occupational injuries (coefficient > 0), including safety hazards, musculoskeletal disorders, dangerous workpieces, job burnout, dirty and disorderly environment, smoking, and male gender; and 3 protective factors (coefficient < 0), including pre-job technical training, good colleague relationship, and long working days per week.
    Conclusion Manufacturing enterprises need to focus on the incidence of non-fatal occupational injuries and conduct targeted interventions for non-fatal occupational injuries by controlling potential safety hazards, providing pre-job technical training, reducing dangerous workpieces, rectifying working environment, and reasonably arranging working hours.

     

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