乌鲁木齐市气象因素与空气污染物对缺血性心脏病住院量的影响

Effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on hospitalization volume of ischemic heart disease in Urumqi City

  • 摘要:
    背景  目前尚未全面了解乌鲁木齐市的气象条件和空气污染物对缺血性心脏病(IHD)住院量的影响。
    目的 探究气象条件(温度、相对湿度)和常见空气污染物颗粒物(PM)包括细颗粒物(PM2.5)和可吸入颗粒物(PM10),臭氧(O3),二氧化硫(SO2),二氧化氮(NO2)以及一氧化碳(CO)对IHD日住院量的影响,为制定针对性的预防和管理策略提供科学依据。
    方法 收集2014年1月1日—2022年12月31日乌鲁木齐市90622例IHD住院患者的基本信息,收集了同期内逐日空气污染物浓度数据、气象数据。其中气象数据主要包括日均温度、日最高温度、日最低温度和日均相对湿度,常见空气污染物指标主要包括PM2.5和PM10、O3日最大8 h的平均浓度(O3_8 h)、SO2、NO2以及CO。对收集的数据进行描述性统计分析(均值、标准差、四分位数);采用基于分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)的时间分层病例交叉设计,分析日均温度、相对湿度和不同空气污染物对该市IHD住院人数的滞后效应(RR)以及累积滞后效应(RRcum),并对性别和年龄(<60岁和≥60岁)进行分层分析。随后采用广义相加模型(GAM)探讨寒潮(等于或小于每日最低温度的P5且持续≥3 d)与热浪(等于或大于每日最高温度的P95且持续≥3 d)对IHD住院量的影响,并分析温度与影响较大的空气污染物(PM和O3_8 h)对IHD住院量的交互作用。
    结果 2014年1月1日—2022年12月31日乌鲁木齐市IHD单日住院最大人数为100人,每日平均住院患者为27人。日均温度、相对湿度以及空气污染物与IHD住院量存在不同的非线性关系和滞后性。极低温(<P1,即<−18 ℃)在累积滞后31 d(lag0-31)时,IHD总人群入院风险最大(RRcum=2.092,95%CI:1.261~3.471),女性lag0-31:RRcum及其95%CI为3.416(2.296~5.082)和≥60岁lag0-31:RRcum及其95%CI为2.356(1.681~3.303)人群对极低温更敏感。寒潮在滞后20 d(lag20)时,IHD住院风险最大(RR=1.242,95%CI:1.053~1.465)。未发现热浪对IHD住院人数的滞后效应。温度与PM和O3_8 h对IHD入院风险存在正向交互作用(SI>1)且具有统计学意义(P<0.001),尤其是低温-高浓度PM和O3_8 h的风险更高。
    结论 2014—2022年乌鲁木齐市低温和高污染物浓度均会引起IHD住院人数的增加且具有滞后效应,同时寒潮对IHD的入院风险较大。女性和60岁及以上人群为高危人群。

     

    Abstract:
    Background The effects of meteorological factors and air pollutants on ischemic heart disease (IHD) hospitalizations in Urumqi have not been fully understood.
    Objective To investigate the effects of meteorological conditions (temperature, relative humidity) and common air pollutants fine particulate matter (PM2.5), inhalable particulate matter (PM10), ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and carbon monoxide (CO) on the daily hospitalization volume of IHD, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of targeted prevention and management strategies.
    Methods Basic information of 90622 IHD hospitalized patients in Urumqi City was collected from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2022, and daily air pollutant concentration data and meteorological data were collected during the same period. The meteorological data included daily mean temperature, daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily mean relative humidity, and the common air pollutants included PM2.5, PM10, daily maximum 8-h average concentration of O3 (O3_8 h), SO2, NO2, and CO. Descriptive statistical analyses (mean, standard deviation, and quartiles) were performed on the collected data. A distribution lag nonlinear model (DLNM) based on time-stratified case-crossover design was established to estimate the lagged effects (RR) as well as the cumulative lagged effects (RRcum) of daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and different air pollutants on the number of IHD admissions, stratified by gender and age (<60 and ≥60 years). Subsequently, a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to explore the effects of cold waves (≤ P5 of the daily minimum temperature and lasting ≥3 d) versus heat waves (≥ P95 of the daily maximum temperature and lasting ≥3 d) on IHD hospitalizations and the potential interactions between temperature and the more influential air pollutants particulate matter (PM) and O3_8 h on IHD hospitalizations.
    Results The maximum number of IHD hospitalizations in a single day in Urumqi from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2022 was 100, and the average daily number of hospitalized IHD patients was 27. Daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and air pollutants had different nonlinear relationships and hysteresis with IHD hospitalizations. Extremely low temperatures (<P1: −18 °C) showed the greatest risk to admission for the total IHD population at a cumulative lag of 31 d (lag0-31) (RRcum=2.092, 95%CI: 1.261,3.471). Female lag0-31, RRcum and 95%CI: 3.416 (2.296,5.082) and people ≥60 years old lag0-31, RRcum and 95%CI: 2.356 (1.681,3.303) were more sensitive to extremely low temperatures. The risk of IHD hospitalization was greatest on lag20 for cold waves (RR=1.242, 95%CI: 1.053, 1.465), and no lagged effect of heat waves on the number of IHD hospitalizations was found. There was a positive interaction (SI >1, P<0.001) between temperature, PM, and O3_8 h on the risk of IHD hospitalization, especially for low temperature-high PM and O3_8 h.
    Conclusion Both low temperature and high pollutant concentrations associate with an increase in IHD hospitalizations with lagged effects in Urumqi from 2014 to 2022, while cold waves associate with a higher risk of IHD admissions. Females and people aged 60 years and older are at high risk.

     

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