合肥市2017—2020年大气臭氧短期暴露与人群非意外死亡风险的时间序列研究

Time-series analysis on relationship between short-term exposure to atmospheric ozone and the risk of non-accidental deaths in Hefei during 2017−2020

  • 摘要:
    背景 近年来合肥工业化发展迅速,环境中臭氧(O3)浓度逐年增加,O3污染已成为合肥市重要的环境污染问题之一。
    目的 分析合肥市环境中O3浓度对常住居民非意外死亡的健康风险,提出有效的O3防控政策。
    方法 收集合肥市常住居民2017—2020年逐日非意外死亡资料、循环系统死亡资料、呼吸系统死亡资料及同时期大气污染和气象因素数据,利用广义相加模型(GAM),并对日均温度、相对湿度、时间趋势和季节趋势以平滑样条函数拟合,分析日均最大8 h臭氧(O3-8 h)浓度每升高10 μg·m−3对合肥市居民非意外死亡、循环系统死亡及呼吸系统死亡风险的单日效应(lag0~lag5)和累积滞后效应(lag01~lag05),并对非意外死亡的全人群进行年龄和性别的分层分析。
    结果 2017—2020年期间,合肥市O3-8 h平均浓度为99.12 μg·m−3,非意外死亡总人数为45787人。模型结果显示,O3-8 h浓度每升高10 μg·m−3,居民非意外死亡风险的单日效应和累积滞后效应分别在lag0和lag02时达到最大值,死亡风险分别增加了0.46%(95%CI:0.06%~0.87%)和0.76%(95%CI:0.27%~1.26%);在累积滞后第3天时,循环系统死亡风险最高,增加了0.78%(95%CI:0.08%~1.48%);分层分析结果显示,男性和女性非意外死亡风险单日效应分别在滞后第1天和当日时最高,分别增加了0.64%(95%CI:0.21%~1.08%)和0.61%(95%CI:0.03%~1.20%);累积滞后第2天时,男性非意外死亡风险最高,达到0.98%(95%CI:0.39%~1.57%);≥65岁人群非意外死亡风险升高于滞后第1天和累积滞后第2天,分别增加了0.41%(95%CI:0.02%~0.81%)和0.67%(95%CI:0.13%~1.21%)。调整时间趋势的自由度和其他大气污染物后,O3-8 h浓度对居民非意外死亡风险的效应变化无统计学意义。
    结论 合肥市O3浓度上升会增加居民非意外死亡风险,男性和≥65岁人群具有更高的O3暴露死亡风险。政府有必要提出针对性防控措施,降低由于臭氧暴露而增加的额外死亡风险。

     

    Abstract:
    Background In recent years, Hefei has experienced rapid industrial development, and the concentration of ozone (O3) in the environment has increased year by year. Ambient O3 pollution has become one of the big issues in Hefei.
    Objective To explore the health risks of non-accidental deaths (NAD) in local residents associated with ambient O3 in Hefei City, and propose effective measures.
    Methods The data of daily NAD, mortality due to circulatory system diseases, mortality due to respiratory system diseases, atmospheric pollution, and meteorological factors were collected in Hefei from 2017 to 2020. By fitting daily average temperature, relative humidity, time trend, and seasonal trend, a generalized additive model was applied to evaluate the single-day effects (lag0-lag5) and cumulative lag effects (lag01-lag05) of NAD, circulatory system mortality, and respiratory system mortality among residents of Hefei City for every 10 μg·m−3 increase in the daily maximum 8-hour average ozone (O3-8 h) concentration. The effects of O3-8 h concentration on total NAD were also examined by stratification of age and sex.
    Results During the period of 2017 to 2020, the average concentration of O3-8 h in Hefei City was 99.12 μg·m−3, and the total number of non-accidental deaths was 45787. For the O3-8 h concentration per 10 μg·m−3 increase, the single-day effect and cumulative lag effect on NAD among residents reached their maximum values at lag0 and lag02, respectively, with the NAD increasing by 0.46% (95%CI: 0.06%, 0.87%) and 0.76% (95%CI: 0.27%, 1.26%); the maximum estimates for deaths from circulatory diseases appeared on lag03 increasing by 0.78% (95%CI: 0.08%, 1.48%). The stratified analyses results showed that the single-day effects on the NAD in males and females reached the maximum values on lag1 and lag0, increasing by 0.64% (95%CI: 0.21%, 1.08%) and 0.61% (95%CI: 0.03%, 1.20%), respectively; on lag02, the NAD among males was the highest, reaching 0.98% (95% CI: 0.39%, 1.57%); significant estimates for NAD among residents aged 65 years and above were observed on lag1 and lag02 rising by 0.41% (95%CI: 0.02%, 0.81%) and 0.67% (95%CI: 0.13%, 1.21%), respectively. After adjusting the degrees of freedom of time trend and other atmospheric pollutants, there was no statistically significant change in the risk of NAD death among residents associated with O3-8h concentration.
    Conclusion The increase O3 concentration in Hefei is correlated with an increased NAD risk among residents, with males and people over 65 years old having a higher risk of death due to O3 exposure. It is necessary for the government to play an important role in developing prevention and control measures to reduce the excess risk of death associated with O3 exposure.

     

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