华中某市大气污染物O3、PM2.5暴露对居民死亡的时间序列研究

Associations of ambient PM2.5 and O3 with human mortality: A time-series study in a city of central China

  • 摘要:
    背景 大气污染物O3、PM2.5暴露与人群死亡存在密切关联。研究往往集中在沿海地区,而中西部地区研究较少。
    目的 探讨华中某市大气O3、PM2.5对居民死亡的急性影响。
    方法 收集华中某市2015年1月1日—2021年6月30日的大气污染物数据、气象数据以及人群死亡资料。气象数据包括日均气温、气压、相对湿度;大气污染物数据包括PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、CO的日均质量浓度(后简称为浓度)以及O3的日最大8 h平均浓度。采用基于泊松分布的广义相加模型定量探讨大气污染物(O3、PM2.5)暴露与居民死亡之间的关系,并进行年龄、性别和文化程度的分层分析。
    结果 研究期间该市O3的日最大8 h平均浓度为94.38 μɡ·m−3,PM2.5的日均浓度为55.56 μɡ·m−3。在单污染物模型中,O3与总死亡以及呼吸系统、循环系统、高血压、冠心病、中风死亡的关联分别在lag02、lag2、lag02、lag0、lag02、lag0时最高,O3每升高10 μɡ·m−3,其ER(95%CI)分别为0.09%(−0.08%~0.25%)、0.35%(0~0.71%)、0.43%(0.18%~0.68%)、0.45%(0.02%~0.91%)、0.59%(0.16%~1.02%)、0.33%(0.01%~0.65%),其中O3对总死亡的影响没有统计学意义(P>0.05)。PM2.5与总死亡以及呼吸系统、循环系统、高血压、冠心病、中风死亡的关联分别在lag1、lag5、lag01、lag05、lag04、lag01时最高,PM2.5每升高10 μɡ·m−3,其ER(95%CI)分别为0.02%(−0.09~0.13%)、0.25%(0.01%~0.50%)、0.35%(95% CI:0.16%~0.54%)、1.18%(95% CI:0.59%~1.77%)、0.17%(−0.13%~0.40%)、0.65%(0.38%~0.92%),PM2.5对总死亡和冠心病死亡的影响没有统计学意义(P>0.05)。在暖季(5—10月)时,O3每升高10 μɡ·m−3,男性、6~65岁人群、>65岁人群、高中以下文化人群的总死亡的ER(95%CI)分别为0.46%(0.16%~0.75%)、0.38%(0.08%~0.68%)、0.41%(0.14%~0.66%)、0.38%(0.14%~0.61%),而在冷季(11月—次年4月)时,O3效应没有统计学意义(P>0.05)。
    结论 大气污染物(O3、PM2.5)对该市居民死亡存在急性影响,老年人、高中文化以下的人群以及患有循环系统疾病的人群对O3、PM2.5暴露更为敏感。

     

    Abstract:
    Background Exposure to air pollutants O3 and PM2.5 is closely related to population mortality. Most of the domestic research findings are for residents in coastal areas, and less for those in the central and western regions.
    Objective To investigate the acute effects of O3 and PM2.5 on the mortality of residents in a city of central China.
    Methods Data were collected on atmospheric pollutants, meteorological data, and population mortality in a city of central China from January 1, 2015 to June 30, 2021. Meteorological data included daily average temperature, air pressure, and relative humidity. Atmospheric pollution data included daily mean concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO and maximum 8 h O3. Generalized additive model with Poisson distribution was used for estimating the relationships between air pollutants (O3 and PM2.5) and population mortality, and further stratified by age, gender, and education.
    Results The daily maximum 8 h average concentration of O3 in the city during the study period was 94.38 μɡ·m−3 and the daily average concentration of PM2.5 was 55.56 μɡ·m−3. In the single-pollutant model, the correlations between O3 concentration and total deaths as well as deaths due to respiratory, circulatory, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and stroke were strongest at lag02, lag2, lag02, lag0, lag02, and lag0, and for every 10 μɡ·m−3 increase in concentration of O3, the associated ER (95%CI) values of daily mortality were increased by 0.09% (−0.08%–0.25%), 0.35% (0–0.71%), 0.43% (0.18%–0.68%), 0.45% (0.02%–0.91%), 0.59% (0.16%–1.02%), and 0.33% (0.01%–0.65%), respectively. The effect of O3 on total mortality was not statistically significant (P>0.05). The correlations between PM2.5 concentration and total deaths, as well as deaths due to respiratory, circulatory, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and stroke were strongest at lag1, lag5, lag01, lag05, lag04, and lag01, and for every 10 μɡ·m−3 increase in concentration of PM2.5, the associated ER (95%CI) values of daily mortality increased by 0.02% (−0.09–0.13%), 0.25% (0.01%–0.50%), 0.35% (0.16%–0.54%), 1.18% (0.59%–1.77%), 0.17% (−0.13%–0.40%), and 0.65% (0.38%–0.92%), respectively, with no statistically significant effects of PM2.5 on total mortality and mortality due to coronary heart disease (P>0.05). During warm season (from May to October), the ER (95%CI) values of total deaths per 10 μɡ·m−3 increase in O3 in male, people aged 6~65 years, people aged >65 years, and people below high school education were 0.46% (0.16%–0.75%), 0.38% (0.08%–0.68%), 0.41% (0.14%–0.66%), and 0.38% (0.14%–0.61%), respectively, while the O3 effect was not statistically significant (P>0.05) during cool season (from November to April).
    Conclusions Atmospheric pollutants (O3 and PM2.5) have acute effects on mortality in the city, with the elderly, people with less than a high school education, and those with circulatory disease being more sensitive to O3 and PM2.5 exposures.

     

/

返回文章
返回