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昆明市2017—2019年大气臭氧污染对人群非意外死亡影响的时间序列研究

Time-series analysis on health effects of atmospheric ozone exposure on non-accidental deaths in Kunming during 2017—2019

    摘要
  • 摘要:
    背景 昆明市属于高原城市，日照充足，紫外线强度大，辐射强，近年来臭氧（O3）污染逐渐成为大气污染的首要问题。
    目的 探讨昆明市大气O3暴露对人群非意外死亡的健康影响。
    方法 收集2017—2019年昆明市气象（平均温度、平均相对湿度、平均气压、平均风速）、大气污染物（PM2.5、PM10、SO2、CO、O3）、人群非意外死亡的资料，采用广义相加模型进行时间序列分析O3浓度对居民每日非意外死亡人数的当日（lag0）、单日（lag1~lag3）及平均滞后效应（lag01~lag03），并对性别、年龄进行分层分析，分暖、冷季进行季节分析。
    结果 2017—2019年O3-8 h平均浓度为（84.3±32.3）μg·m−3。O3-8 h浓度每升高10 μg·m−3：lag0时全人群非意外死亡风险增加0.70%（95%CI：0.11%~1.29%），lag01和lag02时增加0.79%（95%CI：0.14%~1.44%）、0.75%（95%CI：0.08%~1.43%）；女性非意外死亡风险lag2和lag02时增加0.80%（95%CI：0.08%~1.53%）、1.05%（95%CI：0.09%~2.03%）；>65岁人群lag0、lag01、lag02时非意外死亡风险增加0.82%（95%CI：0.16%~1.48%）、0.93%（95%CI：0.20%~1.67%）、0.96%（95%CI：0.20%~1.73%）；暖季居民非意外死亡风险lag0时增加0.91%（95%CI：0.12%~1.70%），lag01和lag02时增加0.98%（95%CI：0.12%~1.86%）、1.00%（95%CI：0.07%~1.93%）。在引入PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO2、CO后，O3暴露水平对居民非意外死亡影响的变化无统计学意义。
    结论 O3暴露水平的提高会增加昆明市居民非意外死亡的风险，且存在滞后效应，>65岁人群和女性可能为敏感人群，暖季时人群对O3暴露可能更敏感。

     

    Abstract:
    Background Kunming is a plateau city with sufficient sunshine, high ultraviolet intensity, and strong radiation. In recent years, ozone (O3) pollution has gradually become the primary problem of air pollution in the city.
    Objective To evaluate the health effects of atmospheric O3 exposure on non-accidental deaths in Kunming.
    Methods The data of meteorological variables (average temperature, average relative humidity, average air pressure, and average wind speed), air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, and O3) and non-accidental deaths (NAD) of residents were collected in Kunming from 2017 to 2019. A generalized additive model was adopted to conduct time-series analyses on the current-day (lag0), single-day (lag1-lag3), and cumulative lag (lag01-lag03) effects of O3 on NAD; furthermore, hierarchical analyses by gender, age, and season (warm and cold) were conducted.
    Results The average concentration of O3-8h from 2017 to 2019 was (84.3±32.3) μg·m−3. For every 10 μg·m−3 increase in O3-8h concentration, the NAD risks of lag0, lag01, and lag02 of total population increased by 0.70% (95%CI: 0.11%-1.29%) 0.79% (95%CI: 0.14%-1.44%), and 0.75% (95%CI: 0.08%-1.43%), respectively; for women, the NAD risks of lag2 and lag02 increased by 0.80% (95%CI: 0.08%-1.53%) and 1.05% (95%CI: 0.09%-2.03%) respectively; for the residents over the age of 65, the associated NAD risks of lag0, lag01, and lag02 increased by 0.82% (95%CI: 0.16%-1.48%), 0.93% (95%CI: 0.20%-1.67%), and 0.96% (95%CI: 0.20%-1.73%), respectively; in the warm season, the NAD risks of lag0, lag01, and lag02 increased by 0.91% (95%CI: 0.12%-1.70%), 0.98% (95%CI: 0.12%-1.86%), and 1.00% (95%CI: 0.07%-1.93%), respectively; After introducing PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO to the model, the effects of O3 exposure level on resident’s NAD was not statistically significant.
    Conclusion An increase of O3 exposure level associates with an increase of NAD risk in residents, and there is a lag effect. Residents over the age of 65, women, and all residents in warm season may be more sensitive to O3 exposure.

     

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