高温热浪增加人群死亡风险的脆弱性理论框架
A theoretical framework for vulnerability of heatwave-related mortality
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摘要:
在全球变暖的背景下，高温热浪的发生频率、强度和持续时间均将进一步增强。近年来，大量研究从不同的角度阐释了高温热浪可能增加人群的死亡风险，但目前的聚焦点较为分散，尚未形成系统性的理论框架。基于此，本文对既往的文献进行系统梳理，回顾了高温热浪增加人群死亡风险的可能机制路径和脆弱性机制，归纳了脆弱性因素影响暴露机会和制约适应能力、影响生理反应和行为等内容，从“暴露程度-修饰效应-生理行为-健康结局”四个过程提出高温热浪增加人群死亡风险的脆弱性理论框架。本文归纳了高温热浪与健康的研究方向，可为未来深入开展气候变化健康风险评估和适应提供思路。
Abstract: In the context of global warming, the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves will further increase. In recent years, plenty of studies have suggested from diversiform perspectives that heatwaves may increase mortality risk. However, the focuses of current studies on heat wave and human health are scattered, and a systematic theoretical framework has not yet been formed. We therefore systematically reviewed the previous literature in terms of possible mechanism paths and vulnerability mechanism of heatwave increasing mortality risk, summarized the vulnerability factors that influence exposure opportunities, constrain adaptive capacity, as well as affect physiological responses and behaviors. We further attempted to propose a theoretical framework from the processes of "exposure degree-modification effect-physiological behavior-health outcome". This paper summarized the research directions on heatwaves and health, which can provide ideas for future in-depth health risk assessment and adaptation to climate change.
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