建立大型活动公共卫生风险评估指标体系初探
Establishing a Public Health Risk Assessment Indicator System for Mass Gatherings
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摘要:
目的 梳理大型活动可能面临的公共卫生风险及其来源,为开展风险评估提供客观指标。 方法 采用两轮德尔菲咨询法进行指标筛选,建立两级指标体系。 结果 大型活动公共卫生风险评估指标体系由4 项一级指标、17 项二级指标组成,其中一级指标包括:(1)风险发生的可能性;(2)风险造成的影响和后果;(3)人群的公共卫生脆弱性;(4)具备的预防处置能力。风险分值计算公式为:p(R)=kp(H)& #215;p(V)-AC。两轮专家征询后,所有17 项二级指标必要性评分分值的变异系数均小于0.25,但仍有9 项二级指标的可获得性评分变异系数大于0.25。 结论 利用公共卫生风险评估指标体系开展风险评估可降低专家的主观性对结果的影响。本指标体系的特点包括:适用范围较广,并不局限于单一类型的大型活动;将预防处置能力纳入评估内容,使评估结果更科学,也对后续应对措施的确定提供更多参考依据。 Abstract:Objective To identify public health hazards and related sources in mass gatherings and to select objective indicators for public health risk assessment. Methods A two-round Delphi consultation was conducted to establish a two-level indicator system. Results The indicator system for public health risk assessment of mass gatherings was constituted of 4 firstlevel and 17 second-level indicators. The first-level indicators were likelihood of public health incident, impact or result of incident, human vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. Risk was calculated according to the following formula: p(R)= kp(H)& #215;p(V)-AC. After two rounds of consultation, the variation coefficients of necessity of all secondary indicators were less than 0.25; however, the variation coefficients of availability were found more than 0.25 in 9 sceondary indicators. Conclusion The risk assessment indicator system reduces the subjectivity of individual experts reviewing. The system has the potential to apply in a wider range of mass gatherings. The involvement of capacity to prevent and respond to public health incidents improves scientific assessments and practical actions.
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