邱劲松, 罗磊. 基于灰色模型的中国职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病发病预测研究[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2020, 37(3): 281-284. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2020.19657
引用本文: 邱劲松, 罗磊. 基于灰色模型的中国职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病发病预测研究[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2020, 37(3): 281-284. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2020.19657
QIU Jin-song, LUO Lei. Prediction of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases in China based on grey model[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2020, 37(3): 281-284. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2020.19657
Citation: QIU Jin-song, LUO Lei. Prediction of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases in China based on grey model[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2020, 37(3): 281-284. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2020.19657

基于灰色模型的中国职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病发病预测研究

Prediction of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases in China based on grey model

  • 摘要: 背景

    近年我国职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病的发病呈增多趋势,将严重危害劳动者健康。

    目的

    了解全国职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病发病情况,预测其发病趋势。

    方法

    收集国家卫生部门官方网站公布的历年职业病防治工作情况通报和我国卫生健康事业发展统计公报,汇总2011-2018年全国职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病发病数据,以该流行病学调查数据建立灰色模型并检验模型效果,进一步运用灰色模型预测2019-2020年职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病发病例数。

    结果

    2011-2018年全国职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病发病人数分别为532、639、716、880、1 097、1 276、1 608、1 528例。全国职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病发病预测模型为\hatx^(1)(k+1)=4 123.87e0.15k-3 591.87,均方差比值c=0.226,小误差概率p=1.00,平均相对误差为6.30%;预测2019-2020年职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病发病例数分别为1954、2277例。

    结论

    GM(1,1)灰色模型可较好地拟合全国职业性耳鼻喉口腔疾病发病情况并预测,具有一定实用性。

     

    Abstract: Background

    Occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases are increasing in China in recent years, and will seriously harm the health of workers.

    Objective

    The study aims to understand and predict the incidence of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases in China.

    Methods

    We collected relevant statistics of reported occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases from 2011 to 2018 from official bulletins on prevention and treatment of occupational diseases and development of health care undertakings published on websites of relevant national health departments. The epidemiological data were used to establish and test a grey model and to validate model predictive effect by applying the model to predict the incidence of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases in 2019-2020.

    Results

    The cases of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases from 2011 to 2018 were 532, 639, 716, 880, 1 097, 1 276, 1 608, and 1 528, respectively. The grey model for national occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases was \hatx^(1)(k+1)=4 123.87e0.15k-3 591.87, mean-squared error ratio (c)=0.226, micro error probability (p)=1.00, and average relative error was 6.30%. The predicted cases of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases from 2019 to 2020 were 1954 and 2277, respectively.

    Conclusion

    The GM (1, 1) grey model can well fit and predict the incidence of occupational otorhinolaryngological diseases in China, and it is applicable.

     

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