中国七城市环境空气质量现状及其与经济发展的关系
Status quo of air quality and its relationship with economic development in seven cities of China
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摘要:
背景 经济发展中持续的能源消耗上升以及环境恶化加剧会制约经济发展，使得经济发展质量下降。2012年我国颁布了新的《环境空气质量标准》（GB 3095-2012），对京津冀等74个城市开展实时空气质量监测并发布空气质量报告。
目的 了解2014-2017年中国7个典型城市的空气质量以及主要大气污染物的污染状况，并分析其与经济发展的关系。
方法 采用空气质量等级、空气质量指数（AQI）、主要大气污染物质量浓度（后称"浓度"）描述空气质量，并与《环境空气质量标准》（GB 3095-2012）进行比较分析。采用各城市AQI代表环境空气质量和年人均国内生产总值（GDP）代表经济发展状况，建立环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）模型来分析空气质量和经济发展的关系。各城市以第一产业、第二产业、第三产业增加值代表其产业结构，以AQI代表其空气质量，两者进行灰色关联度分析。
结果 七大城市中空气质量最好的是深圳市，2014-2017年AQI年均值最小，为54.59。同期，深圳市空气质量处于优良状态的比例最高，为95.8%；处于污染状态的比例最低，为4.2%。6种主要大气污染物浓度均存在不同程度的超标，其中以PM2.5和PM10浓度超标最为严重，7个城市均存在超标，其中PM2.5浓度超标天数最多的是天津市，超过二级标准天数达500 d；PM10浓度超标天数最多的是西安市，454 d超过二级标准。7个城市中，西安、深圳、南京、天津、重庆、兰州的EKC呈"N型"，武汉EKC呈"倒N型"。AQI与人均GDP和三大产业增加值均有较高关联度，且与环境空气质量关联度最大的均为其年人均GDP。
结论 七城市主要大气污染物均存在不同程度的超标，环境空气质量仍有待改善，环境空气质量与经济状况的EKC呈"N型"或"倒N型"，并且年人均GDP和产业结构对环境空气质量有着较大的影响。
Abstract:Background Acceleration in energy consumption and environmental degradation constrains economic development and degrades the quality of economic development. In 2012, China issued a new "Ambient Air Quality Standard" (GB 3095-2012), conducted real-time air quality monitoring, and publicized air quality reports for 74 cities including Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei.
Objective This study is designed to understand the air quality, air pollutant levels, and their relationship with economic development in seven representative cities of China from 2014 to 2017.
Methods Air quality was described by air quality grade, air quality index (AQI), and main air pollutant concentrations, and the results were compared with the "Ambient Air Quality Standard" (GB 3095-2012). The relationship between air quality (AQI) and economic developmentannual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) was analyzed by environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The relationship between industrial structure (added values of the primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors) and air quality AQI was analyzed by grey correlation analysis.
Results Shenzhen had the best air quality among the seven cities, with a lowest annual average AQI of 54.59 from 2014 to 2017. The days with good and moderate air quality in Shenzhen accounted for 95.8% of total studied days, and the polluted days accounted for 4.2%. Six main air pollutants in the seven cities exceeded national limits with varying degrees, especially PM2.5 and PM10. Among the seven cities, Tianjin had the most days (n=500) when PM2.5 was unqualified with the Grade 2 level, and Xi'an had the most days (n=454) when PM10 was unqualified with the Grade 2 level. The EKC results of Xi'an, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Tianjin, Chongqing, and Lanzhou were N-shaped, while the EKC of Wuhan was inverted N-shaped. Both per capita GDP and the added values of the three industries showed strong relationships with AQI, and annual per capita GDP showed the strongest relationship for all the seven cities.
Conclusion At present, the ambient air quality of the seven cities needs further improvement as main air pollutants exceed the national standard to different extents. The EKC of ambient air quality and economy is either N-shaped or inverted N-shaped. Annual per capita GDP and industrial structure have great impacts on ambient air quality.
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