苏州市恶性肿瘤日死亡率与大气主要污染物的关系
Relation between the Daily Mortality of Malignant Tumor and the Air Pollutant in Suzhou
-
摘要:
目的 探讨大气主要污染物对居民恶性肿瘤日死亡率的影响。 方法 收集2002~2007年苏州地区恶性肿瘤日死亡人数和大气中可吸入颗粒物(PM10)、二氧化硫(SO2)、二氧化氮(NO2)以及一氧化碳(CO)等污染物日平均浓度,经时间序列法平稳化后,再运用多元线性回归法进行相关性和确定性分析。 结果 (1)该地区居民恶性肿瘤日死亡率与7天前(lag7)的大气中SO2、NO2及当日(lag0)PM10平均浓度存在相关(P < 0.05),其中SO2和PM10每升高10 μg/m3,恶性肿瘤死亡的相对危险度(RR)和95%可信区间(CI)分别为1.004(1.003~1.006, P < 0.01)和1.001(1.000~1.002, P < 0.05),日死亡率分别上升0.44%(0.29%~0.60%)和0.10%(0.01%~0.19%);而NO2则呈负相关(P < 0.01)。(2)居民恶性肿瘤日死亡率与大气污染物日平均浓度存在线性回归(P < 0.05),回归方程为:& #375;=4.985+3.963SO2 -2.878NO2 +0.577PM10;模型预测的结果比较准确。(3)自变量SO2浓度标化后的偏回归系数为0.392,对应变量恶性肿瘤日死亡率的影响最大。 结论 该地区居民恶性肿瘤日死亡率与大气中SO2和PM10日平均水平呈正相关,与NO2则呈负相关;控制该地区SO2的污染水平可能有利于降低居民恶性肿瘤死亡率。 Abstract:Objective To investigate the effect of the main atmospheric pollutants on the mortality of malignant tumor in Suzhou City. Methods The daily death cases due to malignant tumor and daily average air concentration of inhaled particulate matter(PM10), sulfur dioxide(SO2), nitrogen dioxide(NO2) and carbon monoxide(CO) were collected; then the relationship between them was analyzed with methods of time series and multiple linear regression. Results (1) There were significant correlations between the daily mortality of malignant tumor and the daily mean concentrations of air pollutants (for example, SO2 (lag7) and PM10 (lag0), P < 0.05) in this city. The estimated relative risk (RR) and 95% interval confidence(95% CI) of the mortality of malignant tumor for each 10 μg/m3 elevation of SO2 and PM10 were 1.004 (1.003-1.006, P < 0.01)and 1.001 (1.000-1.002, P < 0.05)respectively; and the raise ratio of the daily mortality of malignant tumor for SO2 and PM10 were 0.44% (0.29%-0.60%) and 0.10% (0.01%-0.19%); while there was negative correlation for NO2(P < 0.01).(2) There were obvious multiple linear regression between the mortality and the concentration of pollutants(P < 0.05). The regression equation was & #375;=4.985+ 3.963SO2-2.878NO2+0.577PM10. The predicted result was coincident with the actual number. (3)Based on the result of the standardized coefficients, the maximum influence was the independent variable of SO2 on the dependent variable of the mortality of malignant tumor. Conclusion In this city, there was significantly positive correlation and linear regression between the mortality of malignant tumor and the concentration of air pollutants (SO2 and PM10, but not NO2). The key point about the decrease of the mortality of malignant tumor was to control the pollution level of SO2.
下载:
