芦静, 张晓梅, 冯晓冬. 包头市大气臭氧污染对人群循环系统疾病死亡的急性效应[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2019, 36(4): 381-387. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2019.18472
引用本文: 芦静, 张晓梅, 冯晓冬. 包头市大气臭氧污染对人群循环系统疾病死亡的急性效应[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2019, 36(4): 381-387. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2019.18472
LU Jing, ZHANG Xiao-mei, FENG Xiao-dong. Acute effect of ambient ozone pollution on death from circulatory diseases in Baotou City[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2019, 36(4): 381-387. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2019.18472
Citation: LU Jing, ZHANG Xiao-mei, FENG Xiao-dong. Acute effect of ambient ozone pollution on death from circulatory diseases in Baotou City[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2019, 36(4): 381-387. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2019.18472

包头市大气臭氧污染对人群循环系统疾病死亡的急性效应

Acute effect of ambient ozone pollution on death from circulatory diseases in Baotou City

  • 摘要: 目的 光化学污染已成为我国城市污染的首要问题,臭氧(O3)可导致居民死亡例数增加,因此本研究评估O3对内蒙古包头市人群循环系统疾病死亡的急性影响。

    方法 收集2015年1月1日-2017年12月31日包头市逐日气象变量(平均温度、平均相对湿度、平均气压、平均风速)、大气污染物(PM2.5、PM10、SO2、CO、O3)和人群循环系统疾病死亡资料,并进行描述性分析。采用基于半泊松回归的广义线性模型,控制长期趋势、气象因素和星期几效应,分析O3与逐日居民循环系统疾病死亡率之间的关系。计算O3每升高10μg/m3,循环系统疾病死亡率增加的超额危险度及95%可信区间(95%CI)。

    结果 包头市全年、夏季和冬季O3日均值分别为93.94、138.70、52.51 μg/m3。单污染物模型显示,O3每升高10 μg/m3,可使总人群(lag1)、女性(lag1)、大于65岁人群(lag1)和男性(lag5)循环系统疾病死亡风险分别增加1.62%(95%CI:0.38%~2.88%)、2.16%(95%CI:0.48%~3.86%),1.54%(95%CI:0.17%~2.92%)和1.61%(95%CI:0.27%~2.96%)。全年多污染物模型分析显示,单独引入SO2、CO、PM2.5或同时引入SO2、CO、PM2.5和PM10时,O3对总人群、女性人群和>65岁人群循环系统疾病日死亡风险的影响增加;单独引入PM10时,O3对总人群和女性人群循环系统疾病日死亡风险有所降低,对>65岁人群循环系统疾病日死亡风险的影响增加;单独引入CO或同时引入SO2、CO、PM2.5和PM10时,O3对男性人群循环系统疾病日死亡风险有影响。夏季多污染物模型分析显示,单独控制SO2或同时控制SO2、CO、PM2.5和PM10时,O3对女性人群的循环系统疾病日死亡风险的负面效应增强。

    结论 包头市大气污染物O3对居民循环系统疾病死亡存在急性影响,该效应夏季强于冬季。

     

    Abstract: Objective Photochemical pollution has become a major concern in urban areas throughout China as ozone (O3) has been linked to increased residents' deaths. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the acute effect of O3 on the circulatory death of residents in Baotou City.

    Methods Daily meteorological data (average temperature, average relatve humidity, average air pressure, and average wind speed), selected air pollutants (PM2.5, PM10, SO2, CO, and O3), and populaton circulatory deaths in Baotou City from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were collected and analyzed descriptvely. Afer controlling long-term trend, meteorological factors, and day-of-the-week effect, a generalized linear model based on quasi-Poisson regression was used to analyze the potental associaton between O3 concentraton and daily populaton death from circulatory diseases. The excess risk and 95% confidence interval of mortality due to circulatory diseases were calculated for per 10 μg/m3 increase in O3.

    Results The daily O3 levels in Baotou city in the whole year, summer, and winter were 93.94, 138.70, and 52.51 μg/m3, respectively. The results of single pollutant model showed that the circulatory disease mortality of general populaton (lag1), female residents (lag1), residents over 65 years old (lag1), and male residents (lag5) increased by 1.62% (95%CI:0.38%-2.88%), 2.16% (95%CI:0.48%-3.86%), 1.54% (95%CI:0.17%-2.92%), and 1.61% (95%CI:0.27%-2.96%) for per 10 μg/m3 increase in O3, respectively. The results of multi-pollutant model for the whole year showed that when SO2, CO, and PM2.5 were introduced separately or SO2, CO, PM2.5, and PM10 were introduced at the same tme, the daily death risk of circulatory diseases associated with O3 in general populaton, female residents, and residents over 65 years old were increased; when PM10 was introduced alone, the risk was reduced in general populaton and female residents, and increased in residents over 65 years old; when CO was introduced alone or SO2, CO, PM2.5, and PM10 were introduced at the same tme, the risk in male residents remained statstcally signifcant. The results of mult-pollutant model for summer showed that when SO2 was controlled alone or SO2, CO, PM2.5, and PM10 were controlled at the same tme, the risk of death from circulatory diseases in female residents were elevated.

    Conclusion O3 polluton has an acute effect on the circulatory death of the residents in Baotou City, and the effect is stronger in summer than in winter.

     

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