彭丽, 叶晓芳, 阚海东, 陈仁杰, 周弋, 郝莉鹏. 气温对上海市浦东新区手足口病发病的短期效应[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2018, 35(8): 690-695. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.18173
引用本文: 彭丽, 叶晓芳, 阚海东, 陈仁杰, 周弋, 郝莉鹏. 气温对上海市浦东新区手足口病发病的短期效应[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2018, 35(8): 690-695. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.18173
PENG Li, YE Xiao-fang, KAN Hai-dong, CHEN Ren-jie, ZHOU Yi, HAO Li-peng. Short-term effects of temperature on incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Pudong New Area, Shanghai[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2018, 35(8): 690-695. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.18173
Citation: PENG Li, YE Xiao-fang, KAN Hai-dong, CHEN Ren-jie, ZHOU Yi, HAO Li-peng. Short-term effects of temperature on incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Pudong New Area, Shanghai[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2018, 35(8): 690-695. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.18173

气温对上海市浦东新区手足口病发病的短期效应

Short-term effects of temperature on incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Pudong New Area, Shanghai

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨气温与手足口病(HFMD)发病的相关性和人群差异,为HFMD预测和防控提供依据。

    方法 收集2012—2016年上海市浦东新区每日气象数据和HFMD病例资料,采用分布滞后非线性模型分析气象因素与HFMD发病的关系,比较气象因素对不同年龄和性别HFMD患者的影响差异。

    结果 2012—2016年上海市浦东新区共报告HFMD临床诊断病例63 004例,男女性别比为1.51。HFMD发病有明显的季节分布特征,5—7月份是HFMD发病高峰。气温与HFMD发病的暴露-反应关系近似倒“V”型,最大累积相对危险度位于24.7~31.8℃温度区间。气温对男性和女性的20 d最大累积相对危险度RR及其95% CI分别为2.02(1.58~2.58)和2.34(1.79~3.08)。1岁以下婴儿对气温反应最为敏感,气温对其20 d最大累积相对危险度RR及其95% CI为3.82(2.33~6.26)。高温高湿与HFMD发病呈正相关,且作用时间长。高温(30.2℃)累积效应在滞后20 d达到最高2.10(1.63~2.70),高湿度(92.6%)的最大效应出现在滞后27 d2.70(2.06~3.54)。

    结论 气温对HFMD发病有影响,低龄儿童的风险更高。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the association between hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and meteorological factors among different populations, and provide evidence for the prediction and prevention of HFMD.

    Methods Daily reported HFMD cases and daily meteorological factors from 2012 to 2016 were collected in Shanghai Pudong New Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLMN) was used to assess the association between meteorological factors and HFMD. The modified effects of meteorological factors on HFMD were also examined by age and gender.

    Results Among the 63 004 cases reported from 2012 to 2016 in Shanghai Pudong New Area, the male-to-female ratio was 1.51. HFMD morbidity had a seasonal pattern with a high incidence from May to July. There was an inverse V-shaped relationship between temperature and HFMD, with a peak of cumulative relative risk at 24.7-31.8℃. The maximum 20-day cumulative relative risks of male and female were 2.02(95%CI:1.58-2.58) and 2.34(95%CI:1.79-3.08), respectively. The temperature effect was greater in infants less than 1 year (RR=3.82, 95%CI:2.33-6.26). High temperature and high relative humidity were positively associated with HFMD, and the high-temperature effect and high-relative humidity effect were long-lasting, with the highest relative risks at lag 0-20 days30.2℃, 2.10 (1.63-2.70) and 0-27 days92.6%, 2.70 (2.06-3.54), respectively.

    Conclusions Temperature may affect the incidence of HFMD, and younger children are more vulnerable.

     

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