林玲, 徐红, 糜跃萍, 韩颖颖, 蔡波, 王秦. 南通市2005-2014年肺癌死亡率变化趋势及影响因素[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2017, 34(4): 326-329. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2017.16686
引用本文: 林玲, 徐红, 糜跃萍, 韩颖颖, 蔡波, 王秦. 南通市2005-2014年肺癌死亡率变化趋势及影响因素[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2017, 34(4): 326-329. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2017.16686
LIN Ling, XU Hong, MI Yue-ping, HAN Ying-ying, CAI Bo, WANG Qin. Trend and influencing factors of lung cancer mortality in Nantong, 2005-2014[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2017, 34(4): 326-329. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2017.16686
Citation: LIN Ling, XU Hong, MI Yue-ping, HAN Ying-ying, CAI Bo, WANG Qin. Trend and influencing factors of lung cancer mortality in Nantong, 2005-2014[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2017, 34(4): 326-329. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2017.16686

南通市2005-2014年肺癌死亡率变化趋势及影响因素

Trend and influencing factors of lung cancer mortality in Nantong, 2005-2014

  • 摘要: 目的 了解南通市2005-2014年肺癌死亡率的变化趋势及定量估计影响因素,为肺癌的防制提供科学依据。

    方法 收集南通市2005-2014年肺癌的死亡数据,分性别和年龄计算肺癌粗死亡率和标化死亡率,采用变化百分比(PC)和年均变化百分比(APC)描述变化趋势,运用差别分解法定量分析肺癌死亡的影响因素。

    结果 南通市肺癌平均粗死亡率为53.97/10万,标化死亡率为28.23/10万。2005-2014年,肺癌粗死亡率在男性(APC=3.97%,95%CI:3.0%~4.6%,P < 0.001)、女性(APC=4.19%,95%CI:3.2%~5.1%,P < 0.001)和全人群(APC=3.98%,95%CI:3.2%~4.5%,P < 0.001)中均呈上升的总体趋势;但标化死亡率在男性、女性和全人群中均未见明显的变化趋势。男性、女性和全人群人口结构因素对死亡率的贡献率分别是97.6%、70.9%和84.1%。

    结论 南通市2005-2014年肺癌粗死亡率呈上升趋势,人口老龄化是主要影响因素。

     

    Abstract: Objective To understand the trend of lung cancer mortality in Nantong from 2005 to 2014, quantitatively estimate related influencing factors, and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of lung cancer.

    Methods Mortality data of lung cancer in Nantong during 2005-2014 were collected. Crude death rates and age-standardized rates by gender and age were calculated. Percentage change (PC) and annual percentage change (APC) were used for describing temporal trend. Influencing factors of lung cancer mortality were analyzed by the method of difference decomposition.

    Results The average crude mortality rate of lung cancer was 53.97/105, and age-standardized mortality rate was 28.23/105. There was a significant upward trend of male lung cancer death with the APC of 3.97% (95%CI: 3.0%-4.6%, P < 0.001), as well as the trend of female with the APC of 4.19% (95%CI: 3.2%-5.1%, P < 0.001) and of whole population with the APC of 3.98% (95%CI: 3.2%-4.5%, P < 0.001). But there were no changes in the standardized mortality rate of male, female, and whole population. The demographic structural contributions to mortality were 97.6% in male, 70.9% in female, and 84.1% in whole population.

    Conclusion The crude mortality rate of lung cancer in Nantong is increasing from 2005 to 2014, of which an aging population is a main influencing factor.

     

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