周峰, 吴春晓, 郑莹, 仲伟鉴. 1981-2010年上海市市区甲状腺癌的发病趋势[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2015, 32(11): 997-1002. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2015.15197
引用本文: 周峰, 吴春晓, 郑莹, 仲伟鉴. 1981-2010年上海市市区甲状腺癌的发病趋势[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2015, 32(11): 997-1002. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2015.15197
ZHOU Feng , WU Chunxiao , ZHENG Ying , ZHONG Wei-jian . Temporal Trend of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Urban Shanghai, 1981-2010[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2015, 32(11): 997-1002. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2015.15197
Citation: ZHOU Feng , WU Chunxiao , ZHENG Ying , ZHONG Wei-jian . Temporal Trend of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Urban Shanghai, 1981-2010[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2015, 32(11): 997-1002. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2015.15197

1981-2010年上海市市区甲状腺癌的发病趋势

Temporal Trend of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Urban Shanghai, 1981-2010

  • 摘要: 目的 描述和分析上海市甲状腺癌发病趋势,为进一步开展相关研究和完善相关防治策略提供依据。

    方法 上海市市区甲状腺癌年度发病数据来自上海市恶性肿瘤登记系统,覆盖年份为1981-2010 年。采用世界标准人口计算年龄标化发病率。趋势描述和分析采用美国国立癌症研究所建立的平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分析方法及Joinpoint 软件。标化率差异比较采用Z 检验。

    结果 1981-2010 年上海市市区居民男女性甲状腺癌标化发病率呈上升趋势,平均每年分别上升7.71%(95% CI:6.50%~8.95%)和7.05%(95% CI:4.97%~9.18%),女性甲状腺癌标化发病率是男性的2.59~4.09 倍。除了0~19 岁以外,各年龄组的发病率均表现出上升趋势,平均每年上升13%以上;甲状腺癌发病高危年龄组逐渐集中于45~64 组。2002-2010 年,甲状腺癌的病理学类型以乳头状癌为主,占比始终高于53%。2007-2010 年乳头状癌、滤泡状癌和女性髓样癌标化发病率较2002-2006 年增长至少1倍。

    结论 甲状腺癌在上海的增长趋势与全球以及部分发达国家的情况相似。加强相关评估和研究将有助于更清晰地认识上海市甲状腺癌流行病学特点,为完善相关防治策略奠定基础。

     

    Abstract: Objective To describe the temporal trend for incidence of thyroid cancer(TC) in Shanghai and to provide reference for further studies and control strategies.

    Methods Annual TC incidence data within the period of 1981-2010 for urban Shanghai was provided by Shanghai Cancer Registry System. The calculation of age-standardized incidence rates(ASIRs) was based on world standard population. Average annual percentage of change(AAPC) and Joinpoint software from US National Cancer Institute were used to describe the trend for TC. Z test was used to distinguish the difference of ASIRs.

    Results During 1981-2010, the temporal variation of ASIRs for TC for urban residents in Shanghai had ascending trends with a male AAPC of 7.71%(95% CI: 6.50%-8.95%) and a female AAPC of 7.05%(95% CI: 4.97%-9.18%). The ASIRs for female TC were 2.59-4.09 times as high as those for male TC in urban Shanghai. All ASIRs of TC for the urban residents had rising trends with AAPCs over 13% except those aged 0-19 years. The population with high risks of TC was gradually concentrated in the 45-64 years age group. During the period of 2002-2010, papillary cancer was the dominant type with proportions over 53% of total types of TC. The ASIRs of 2007-2010 from papillary, follicular, and female medullary cancers were at least double the respective levels of 2002-2006.

    Conclusion The rising trend of TC in Shanghai is similar to those in the global and some developed countries. Improvement of the evaluation and research on factors associated with TC will help to clarify the epidemiological features about TC in Shanghai and promote more efficient control and prevention strategies.

     

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