PENG Li, YE Xiao-fang, KAN Hai-dong, CHEN Ren-jie, ZHOU Yi, HAO Li-peng. Short-term effects of temperature on incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Pudong New Area, Shanghai[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2018, 35(8): 690-695. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.18173
Citation: PENG Li, YE Xiao-fang, KAN Hai-dong, CHEN Ren-jie, ZHOU Yi, HAO Li-peng. Short-term effects of temperature on incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Pudong New Area, Shanghai[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2018, 35(8): 690-695. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.18173

Short-term effects of temperature on incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Pudong New Area, Shanghai

  • Objective To assess the association between hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) and meteorological factors among different populations, and provide evidence for the prediction and prevention of HFMD.

    Methods Daily reported HFMD cases and daily meteorological factors from 2012 to 2016 were collected in Shanghai Pudong New Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLMN) was used to assess the association between meteorological factors and HFMD. The modified effects of meteorological factors on HFMD were also examined by age and gender.

    Results Among the 63 004 cases reported from 2012 to 2016 in Shanghai Pudong New Area, the male-to-female ratio was 1.51. HFMD morbidity had a seasonal pattern with a high incidence from May to July. There was an inverse V-shaped relationship between temperature and HFMD, with a peak of cumulative relative risk at 24.7-31.8℃. The maximum 20-day cumulative relative risks of male and female were 2.02(95%CI:1.58-2.58) and 2.34(95%CI:1.79-3.08), respectively. The temperature effect was greater in infants less than 1 year (RR=3.82, 95%CI:2.33-6.26). High temperature and high relative humidity were positively associated with HFMD, and the high-temperature effect and high-relative humidity effect were long-lasting, with the highest relative risks at lag 0-20 days30.2℃, 2.10 (1.63-2.70) and 0-27 days92.6%, 2.70 (2.06-3.54), respectively.

    Conclusions Temperature may affect the incidence of HFMD, and younger children are more vulnerable.

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