上海市徐汇区80岁以下居民糖尿病疾病负担及其趋势分析
Estimation and Trend Analysis on the Burden of Diabetes Mellitus among Residents under 80 Years of Age in Xuhui District, Shanghai
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摘要:
目的 对上海市徐汇区居民糖尿病进行疾病负担的测量和分析,探讨其演变趋势。 方法 数据源自1999—2011 年上海市徐汇区疾病预防控制中心死亡登记系统,对象为所有80 岁以下、徐汇区户籍、死因为糖尿病的居民共计1 780 人。分别计算残疾损失健康生命年(YLD)、死亡损失年(YLL)及伤残调整寿命年(DALY),并对DALY 作时间趋势检验,对具有时间趋势特征者建立灰色动态模型GM(1,1)进行预测。 结果 近13 年该区80 岁以下糖尿病DALY均高于2004 年全国水平和新兴市场经济体;男、女性糖尿病所致残疾负担均远高于死亡负担,残疾所致负担占67.5%;近13 年男性糖尿病DALY有随时间延长而增长的趋势(u=2.92,P < 0.01),利用灰色动态模型预测2012—2013 年徐汇区80 岁以下糖尿病的每千人DALY分别为7.66、8.26。 结论 该区糖尿病疾病负担较重,糖尿病所致残疾负担较死亡负担严重,男性疾病负担有上升的趋势。 Abstract:Objective To estimate and analyze the disease burden of diabetes mellitus (DM) and explore its possible trend among residents in Xuhui District of Shanghai. Methods Data obtained from Xuhui District residential death registration system (1999-2011) were employed to select 1 780 residents under 80 years old with DM as primary death cause. The disease burden of DM was estimated by disability adjusted life year (DALY) which included years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD). The time trend of DALYs were predicted by establishing a Grey Dynamic model. Results The DALYs of DM of Xuhui residents under 80 years of age over the past 13 years were higher than those of emerging market economies and China in 2004. The estimated YLD, accounting for 67.5% of total DALY, was much higher than the YLL no matter what gender was concerned. The DALYs of males showed a time trend tendency (u=2.92, P < 0.01) while no such trend was found in females. The short-term estimated DALYs for residents under the age of 80 years based on Grey Dynamic model were 7.66 and 8.26 per 1 000 people for year 2012 and 2013, respectively. Conclusion The burden of DM in Xuhui District is heavy and shows a time tendency in men. Disabled burden of DM is higher than death burden.
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