李盛, 王金玉, 马汉平, 李普, 董继元, 李守禹, 王宇红, 张薇, 张晓宇, 王龄庆, 常旭红. 2008-2016年兰州市气温与流行性腮腺炎发病的关联性[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2018, 35(8): 696-701. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.18242
引用本文: 李盛, 王金玉, 马汉平, 李普, 董继元, 李守禹, 王宇红, 张薇, 张晓宇, 王龄庆, 常旭红. 2008-2016年兰州市气温与流行性腮腺炎发病的关联性[J]. 环境与职业医学, 2018, 35(8): 696-701. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.18242
LI Sheng, WANG Jin-yu, MA Han-ping, LI Pu, DONG Ji-yuan, LI Shou-yu, WANG Yu-hong, ZHANG Wei, ZHANG Xiaoyu, WANG Lin-qing, CHANG Xu-hong. Relationship between temperature and mumps in Lanzhou between 2008 and 2016[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2018, 35(8): 696-701. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.18242
Citation: LI Sheng, WANG Jin-yu, MA Han-ping, LI Pu, DONG Ji-yuan, LI Shou-yu, WANG Yu-hong, ZHANG Wei, ZHANG Xiaoyu, WANG Lin-qing, CHANG Xu-hong. Relationship between temperature and mumps in Lanzhou between 2008 and 2016[J]. Journal of Environmental and Occupational Medicine, 2018, 35(8): 696-701. DOI: 10.13213/j.cnki.jeom.2018.18242

2008-2016年兰州市气温与流行性腮腺炎发病的关联性

Relationship between temperature and mumps in Lanzhou between 2008 and 2016

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨气象因素对流行性腮腺炎(简称“流腮”)发病的影响。

    方法 2008—2016年兰州市每日流腮病例发病的基本信息及气象数据分别来自全国传染病报告信息管理系统及甘肃省气象局。高温效应以日平均气温9年均值(11.11℃)作为参照值,计算高于此值的日平均气温对流腮发病的RR值,并选取日平均气温的第75百分位数(P75)和第95百分位数(P95)作为代表来描述热效应。低温效应以日平均气温9年均值作为参照值,计算低于此值的日平均气温对流腮发病的RR值,并选取日平均气温的第5百分位数(P5)和第25百分位数(P25)作为代表来描述冷效应。运用分布滞后非线性模型,在控制长期趋势、月份差异、星期几效应、节假日效应的基础上,探索气温、相对湿度与流腮发病的关系。

    结果 2008—2016年兰州市共报告流腮11 762例,男女性别比为1.52:1,6~14岁儿童最多,占49.67%。温度对流腮的影响呈现非线性关系,温度较高或较低时均表现出即时性和短期滞后性。日均气温高于12.7℃(P50)时,以26.0℃时lag1 d的流腮发病风险RR及95% CI(1.32,1.05~1.65)最大;日均气温低于12.7℃时,以-2℃时lag 0 d的RR及95% CI值最高,为1.26(1.05~1.51)。当温度在20.1℃(P75)和25.4℃(P95)时,全人群流腮发病的累计效应在lag 0~3 d至lag 0~7 d均有统计学意义,以lag 0~3 d时RR值最大,分别为1.43(1.12~1.81),1.83(1.34~2.50);当温度在-5.2℃(P5)和1.7℃(P25)时,全人群流腮发病的累计效应在lag 0~3 d至lag 0~14 d均有统计学意义,以lag 0~7 d时RR值最大,分别为1.95(1.41~2.70),1.62(1.25~2.09)。高温(25.4℃、20.1℃)和低温(-5.2℃、1.7℃)时,6~14岁儿童lag 0~14 d累计效应RR值高于其他年龄段人群。相对湿度在66%、69%时,RR值分别为1.26(1.01~1.57)、1.34(1.02~1.76),流腮发病风险有统计学意义,可产生危害效应。

    结论 高温和低温均造成人群流腮发病风险上升,低温效应持续时间较高温长,6~14岁儿童是敏感人群。当相对湿度为66%~69%时流腮发病风险可能上升。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of mumps.

    Methods The daily data of reported mumps cases and meteorological variables in Lanzhou from 2008 to 2016 were obtained from the National Infections Disease Report Information Management System and the Gansu Meteordogical Bureau. With the annual mean temperature (11.11℃) of Lanzhou as reference, the RR of daily mean temperature above this value to the onset of mumps was calculated, and the P75 and P95 of daily mean temperature were used to describe high temperature effect; the RR of daily mean temperature below this value to the onset of mumps was calculated, and the P5 and P25 of the daily mean temperature were used to describe low temperature effect. The relationships of temperature and relative humidity with the incidence of mumps were examined by distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM), adjusted for long-time trend, monthly variation, day-of-the-week effect, and holiday effect.

    Results A total of 11 762 cases were reported from 2008 to 2016, the ratio of male to female was 1.52:1, and the children aged 6-14 years accounted for 49.67%. There was a non-linear relationship between temperature and mumps, and were acute and shortterm lag effects at both high temperature and low temperature. The RR (95%CI) was highest at 26℃ on lag 1d for high temperature days>12.7℃ (P50), which was 1.32(1.05-1.65), and at -2℃ on lag 0d for low temperature days (< 12.7℃), which was 1.26(1.05-1.51). At 20.1℃ (P75) and 25.4℃ (P95), the cumulative effect on the onset of mumps was significant from lag 0-3 d to lag 0-7 d, with the highest RR of 1.43 (1.12-1.81) and 1.83 (1.34-2.50) on lag 0-3 d, respectively. At -5.2℃ (P5) and 1.7℃ (P25), the cumulative effect of the onset of mumps showed statistical significance from lag 0-3d to lag 0-14d, with the highest RR of 1.95(1.41-2.70) and 1.62(1.25-2.09) on lag 0-7 d, respectively. The children aged 6-14 years showed highest RR of cumulative effects on mumps on lag 0-14 d among all age groups at high temperature (25.4℃, 20.1℃) and low temperature (-5.2℃, 1.7℃). With the relative humidity of 66% and 69%, the corresponding RRs were 1.26 (1.01-1.57) and 1.34 (1.02-1.76), respectively, suggesting elevated risks for mumps.

    Conclusion The increasing incidence of mumps is associated with both low and high temperatures. The effect of low temperature on reported mumps lasts longer than the effect of high temperature. The children aged 6-14 years are susceptible to mumps. Moreover, the relative humidity of 66%-69% might increase the risk of mumps.

     

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